Bitcoin Halving 2024 — Impact on Prices in 2026

The Bitcoin halving is one of the most significant events in cryptocurrency history. In April 2024, the fourth halving occurred, reducing the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Now, in early 2026, it is the right time to analyse how this event has impacted prices and what to expect going forward.

What is Bitcoin Halving?

Bitcoin halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, approximately every four years. During a halving, the production of new bitcoins is cut exactly in half. This mechanism is hardcoded into the Bitcoin protocol and ensures that no more than 21 million BTC will ever be created. The halving is a deflationary mechanism that makes Bitcoin an increasingly scarce asset over time.

History of All Halvings

Let us examine all four halvings and their impact on price:

Historical Cycles: Does the Pattern Repeat?

After each previous halving, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high (ATH) within 12-18 months. After the first halving, the price rose by nearly 9,000%, after the second by approximately 3,000%, and after the third by around 700%. Each cycle has brought smaller but still significant growth.

The fourth halving took place in April 2024, when the BTC price was around $64,000. By early 2025, the price had already surpassed $100,000. This confirms that the historical pattern continues to hold, although the percentage growth decreases with each cycle.

Outlook for 2026

Historically, the post-halving bull market lasts 1-1.5 years. If the pattern continues, the first half of 2026 could be the most dynamic period. Analysts have outlined the following scenarios:

• Optimistic scenario: BTC price exceeds $150,000, supported by institutional investors (Bitcoin ETFs) and decreasing supply.
• Moderate scenario: Price consolidates in the $80,000-$120,000 range, as the market has already priced in most of the growth.
• Pessimistic scenario: A global recession or regulatory shocks lead to a correction to the $50,000-$70,000 level.

The Impact of Bitcoin ETFs

In January 2024, the first spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in the United States, including BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund. This was an unprecedented step that opened Bitcoin investment to institutional investors and ordinary pension funds.

By the end of 2025, over $50 billion in new capital had flowed into the Bitcoin market through ETFs. This means the halving cycle effect is amplified this time by institutional demand, which was virtually non-existent in previous cycles.

What Estonian Investors Should Consider

For Estonian investors, several aspects are important in the context of the halving:

• Taxation: Cryptocurrency gains in Estonia are subject to 22% income tax. If you bought BTC before the halving and sell at a profit, you must declare the gain.
• Platform choice: Use a MiCA-licensed exchange that provides regulatory protection and proper reporting.
• Dollar-cost averaging (DCA): Rather than trying to time the market, invest a fixed amount regularly. This reduces volatility risk.
• Security: Store larger amounts in a hardware wallet. Exchange wallets are suitable for trading, not for long-term holding.
• Diversification: Do not put your entire portfolio into one asset class. Cryptocurrency should be part of a broader investment strategy.

Conclusion

The 2024 Bitcoin halving has already made its impact, and historical cycles suggest that 2026 could be the peak of the bull market. However, it is important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing in cryptocurrency carries risk, and every investor should conduct their own research (DYOR -- Do Your Own Research).

For investors in Estonia, we recommend choosing a reliable MiCA-licensed platform, using a DCA strategy, and maintaining a high level of security.